Harley pulls the plug on the LiveWire - Page 10 - VTXOA
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post #91 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Mowoc View Post
Come on, admit it - the participation trophy crack was funny.

Back to the discussion - motorcycle sales are declining rapidly. No one wants them. I am sure there will be a small core market for HD, but it wonít be what the 90s brought them.

Either they get it together and put out a product millennials want or they are in for seriously difficult times.

I wish them luck. I showed why the bikes are overpriced relative to the competition - thatís why I wonít buy them. Well that and push rods are 70 year old technology. Overhead valves have existed long enough tht they are pretty solid.
do you have data, articles or inside information that could be of use. Millennial data too? I'm believing what you are saying but still want to know if you have actual data to back it up. I don't want to assume the worst outcome for motorcycles if i dont have to or shouldn't be. Maybe i missed it when the data was presented.
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post #92 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 11:34 AM
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the decline in units is well documented. It actually started about 10 years ago.

The thing is that the decline is not dramatic. It follows the aging of two populations - the boomers and Gen X. As those two populations age and die. it will start to accelerate. Take a look around - there are plenty of sites that discuss this issue.

https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcy...ends-analysis/

Point #8 in this article pretty much sums it up:

In 2007, consumers purchased 1 million motorcycles in the United States. In 2017, consumers bought about 472,000 motorcycles. (Statista)

units fell by half in 10 years. That is not a good sign......

Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light - Dylan Thomas
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke
If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them. - Dalai Lama
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post #93 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Mowoc View Post
the decline in units is well documented. It actually started about 10 years ago.

The thing is that the decline is not dramatic. It follows the aging of two populations - the boomers and Gen X. As those two populations age and die. it will start to accelerate. Take a look around - there are plenty of sites that discuss this issue.

https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcy...ends-analysis/

Point #8 in this article pretty much sums it up:

In 2007, consumers purchased 1 million motorcycles in the United States. In 2017, consumers bought about 472,000 motorcycles. (Statista)

units fell by half in 10 years. That is not a good sign......

Bottom line, i think you are being an alarmist with regards to Harley, screaming "the sky is falling"
here.

First, the 2007 units purchased you reference does not separate Harley from all other brands making it misleading in a Harley-Davidson discussion. I tried (for awhile) to find Harley Davidson's USA Sales by unit per year 2007-2018 but could not find it. What i did find were these two pieces of data.

1. Harley-Davidson's sales revenue per year worldwide by year 2005-2018
Harley-Davidson Annual Revenue
(Millions of US $)
2018 $5,717
2017 $5,647
2016 $5,996
2015 $5,995
2014 $6,229
2013 $5,900
2012 $5,581
2011 $5,312
2010 $4,859
2009 $4,782
2008 $5,955
2007 $6,143
2006 $6,186
2005 $5,674
The above doesn't look so bad actually.
Source of data:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...vidson/revenue

2. These "facts" i found by following the link you provided above. This link:
https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcy...ends-analysis/

#3. 1.9 million motorcycles are expected to be sold across North America in 2018. Harley Davidson is the global leader in the industry, with $5.6 billion in total revenues earned each year. (Statista)
This seems to contradict the statistica statement you provided regarding 2017 units sold.

#10. Harley Davidson has a 60% share of the female market within the motorcycle industry thanks to the introduction of its Street 500 and Street 750 models. (The Motley Fool)
What is the Harleys Market percentage share of the Male market within the motorcycle industry? That data was mysteriously missing.


Harley Sales are still down but not nearly as bad a you were trying to illustrate. 2018 blends in with the fluctuations that occurred over the range of years.


To all those with the Dooms Day scenario for Harley I say Lighten up Francis.
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Last edited by VTXArizona; 10-24-2019 at 02:16 PM.
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post #94 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by VTXArizona View Post

Bottom line, i think you are being an alarmist with regards to Harley, screaming "the sky is falling"
here.

First, the 2007 units purchased you reference does not separate Harley from all other brands making it misleading in a Harley-Davidson discussion. I tried (for awhile) to find Harley Davidson's USA Sales by unit per year 2007-2018 but could not find it. What i did find were these two pieces of data.

1. Harley-Davidson's sales revenue per year worldwide by year 2005-2018
Harley-Davidson Annual Revenue
(Millions of US $)
2018 $5,717
2017 $5,647
2016 $5,996
2015 $5,995
2014 $6,229
2013 $5,900
2012 $5,581
2011 $5,312
2010 $4,859
2009 $4,782
2008 $5,955
2007 $6,143
2006 $6,186
2005 $5,674
The above doesn't look so bad actually.
Source of data:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...vidson/revenue

2. These "facts" i found by following the link you provided above. This link:
https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcy...ends-analysis/

#3. 1.9 million motorcycles are expected to be sold across North America in 2018. Harley Davidson is the global leader in the industry, with $5.6 billion in total revenues earned each year. (Statista)
This seems to contradict the statistica statement you provided regarding 2017 units sold.

#10. Harley Davidson has a 60% share of the female market within the motorcycle industry thanks to the introduction of its Street 500 and Street 750 models. (The Motley Fool)
What is the Harleys Market percentage share of the Male market within the motorcycle industry? That data was mysteriously missing.


Harley Sales are still down but not nearly as bad a you were trying to illustrate. 2018 blends in with the fluctuations that occurred over the range of years.


To all those with the Dooms Day scenario for Harley I say Lighten up Francis.
HD revenue doesn't mean its healthy. This is from the latest earnings release:

https://www.rideapart.com/articles/3...rnings-report/

As of right now, the company is targeting shipments of between 212,000 and 217,000 bikes worldwide for 2019. That is about 55% of the unit number I posted earlier.


it is not just alarmists saying that HD is in for a rough time. The stock price for HD is down 38.55% over the last 5 years. At the same time the markets are up around 50% over the same time frame. HD has issues - and they are not tiny ones. Everyone knows it and the fix is easy and well known - get millennials to buy their bikes. TBH, I don't see a millennial tattooing HD or any other brand on themselves besides maybe apple. That generation simply doesn't see things like other generations.

HD won't make it if they can't extend their market to the younger generation, and that is the cold truth here. I am not saying they won't - clearly they are geniuses at marketing if they can get people to buy their technology at a rate that is approximately double the profit that anyone else makes.

I wish HD luck - I don't want them to disappear, but with a 50% loss in sold units over 10 years and younger demographic that doesn't find the brand appealing I don't see much hope for them long term.

Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light - Dylan Thomas
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke
If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them. - Dalai Lama
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post #95 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:13 PM
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Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

Would still like to see worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. Just revenue by year.

How can revenue be off 8% in 2017 compared to 2007 then you're providing data saying 50% drop in sales units in 2017 compared to 2007.

So the units went down by 50% and the revenue down by just 8%? I'm not a numbers guy, but something is wrong there. Maybe Harley sold a hell of a lot of leather jackets and oil changes, or became extremely efficient.

I would like to see Harley worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. can you find the data?

Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

i purposely repeated what i consider important points i have.

Here's Harley's investor relations page:
https://investor.harley-davidson.com...e-retail-sales
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post #96 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:26 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Mowoc View Post


it is not just alarmists saying that HD is in for a rough time. The stock price for HD is down 38.55% over the last 5 years. At the same time the markets are up around 50% over the same time frame. HD has issues - and they are not tiny ones. Everyone knows it and the fix is easy and well known - get millennials to buy their bikes. TBH, I don't see a millennial tattooing HD or any other brand on themselves besides maybe apple. That generation simply doesn't see things like other generations.

HD won't make it if they can't extend their market to the younger generation, and that is the cold truth here. I am not saying they won't - clearly they are geniuses at marketing if they can get people to buy their technology at a rate that is approximately double the profit that anyone else makes.

I wish HD luck - I don't want them to disappear, but with a 50% loss in sold units over 10 years and younger demographic that doesn't find the brand appealing I don't see much hope for them long term.
Well said and some great data in previous posts. Millennials-a whole new breed that could take down most of the motorcycle industry in future. years.
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post #97 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:32 PM Thread Starter
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Funny millennials and motorcycles videos.

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post #98 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:36 PM
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Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

Would still like to see worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. Just revenue by year.

How can revenue be off 8% in 2017 compared to 2007 then you're providing data saying 50% drop in sales units in 2017 compared to 2007.

So the units went down by 50% and the revenue down by just 8%? I'm not a numbers guy, but something is wrong there. Maybe Harley sold a hell of a lot of leather jackets and oil changes, or became extremely efficient.

I would like to see Harley worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. can you find the data?

Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

i purposely repeated what i consider important points i have.

Here's Harley's investor relations page:
https://investor.harley-davidson.com...e-retail-sales
they increased their marketing sales of paraphernalia. Tshirts and leather coats have a higher gross margin then bikes.


PS - worldwide sales of bikes are healthy. but most people in the developing world want smaller displacement bikes. 125 to 250 is all they want. those bikes tend to sell for < $1000.

I agree it would be great if HD could pierce that market - but they are marketing themselves as a premium brand. I just don't see this as viable for them unless they develop a separate brand for developing nations.

PPS - this is where honda is focusing. They could not care less about us american v twin riding types.
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Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light - Dylan Thomas
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke
If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them. - Dalai Lama
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post #99 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:48 PM Thread Starter
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PPS - this is where honda is focusing. They could not care less about us american v twin riding types.
Honda has the Fury 1300 in the 2020 lineup, very strange. The chopper scene died a long time ago.
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post #100 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-24-2019, 08:59 PM
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Honda has the Fury 1300 in the 2020 lineup, very strange. The chopper scene died a long time ago.
Not available in Canada even. In Canada they have 2 cruisers, The Rebel 500 and the Rebel 300. They are entirely out of the cruiser market in Canada. Other than the Goldwing they have nothing at all that even remotely competes with anything Harley, or Indian for that matter. The variations of different bike types are all just different engines that look the same. Nothing too exciting, at least for me. Around here, Honda's sales of anything but sport bikes and dirt bikes / ATVs were dismal. That may only be for around this area, but it seems they will need to do something to spruce up the offerings to get people back into showrooms. I am told the new Goldwing did fairly well for them this past season though, even with it's teething problems.


My bet is that Honda will rely on international sales and wait out the market in North America. This is definitely a luxury they can enjoy for the interim. I don't think Harley has that luxury, but is something they are definitely working on. Their focus is definitely international sales. Asia and India, mainly.


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Last edited by Harkon; 10-24-2019 at 09:02 PM.
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