Harley pulls the plug on the LiveWire - Page 9 - VTXOA
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post #81 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-22-2019, 08:47 PM
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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
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post #82 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-22-2019, 10:17 PM
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Weird considering you haven quoted a single fact to support the case HD isn’t overpriced.

The fact is that HD is over priced. The opinion is if it is worth it.
Never mind brother. It's unlikely you'll take my point as you fail to see your "facts" are assumption and preference. It's all good, your feelings regarding this are clear. I only wanted to point out that gross profit and what ends up keeping the lights on are vastly different. It is far ... far more involved than just looking at a couple of numbers and drawing a conclusion.


I don't support a case that HDs are NOT overpriced, only that your case that they are is based on loose assumptions. That doesn't mean you are wrong, only that you can't back up your opinion with facts, because you haven't seen both sets of books. Again, it doesn't mean your opinion is incorrect. If it's not worth it to the person spending the cash, then one should buy something else. It would be foolish otherwise.


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post #83 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-22-2019, 10:52 PM Thread Starter
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Thatís the beauty of the free market.

You like it? Buy it.

The issue for HD is that their market is shrinking. Boomers are dying off. And gen x is not interested in HD like the boomers. The millennials are not attracted at all.
The thing with buying a high price bike. There comes a time in the future you will have to sell due to age, health or other. Motorcycles are in a decline. Trends and styles come and go. We live in a throw away society. You'll take a bike loss on selling that high price bike you once paid for. Keeping my Honda, enjoyed many good times, not buying a Harley pushing back.
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post #84 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 01:15 AM
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The thing with buying a high price bike. There comes a time in the future you will have to sell due to age, health or other. Motorcycles are in a decline. Trends and styles come and go. We live in a throw away society. You'll take a bike loss on selling that high price bike you once paid for. Keeping my Honda, enjoyed many good times, not buying a Harley pushing back.
I took what you said and removed what i felt was BS or unnecessary "filler" verbiage.

Amounts to this:

"Motorcycles are in a decline. You'll take a bike [big] loss on selling that bike [Harley you bought new]. Keeping my Honda not buying a Harley [because the cost]."

Nothing new there that we didn't already know yet keep hearing repeated. Yawn....


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post #85 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 06:36 AM Thread Starter
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I took what you said and removed what i felt was BS or unnecessary "filler" verbiage.

Amounts to this:

"Motorcycles are in a decline. You'll take a bike [big] loss on selling that bike [Harley you bought new]. Keeping my Honda not buying a Harley [because the cost]."

Nothing new there that we didn't already know yet keep hearing repeated. Yawn....
Correct I meant big loss. I know I'm repeating. I always think about long term effects when making big purchases instead of being caught in the moment. I see it all the time people buy things, change their minds turn around sell it at a loss.
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post #86 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 07:14 PM
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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
PARTICIPATION TROPHY!!!!!!!!

It doesn't matter if they tried. Either they succeed or they fail. No one cares that sears or kmart tried. they failed. That is what we remember. HD had killer margins for a manufacturer. They sold their product as a premium niche product that should garner attention (think iphone). This worked fantastic for the boomers. It still does to the extent the boomers ride.

Then generation x (my generation) came along. We still ride, but we are skeptical of the 70 year old technology HD uses for their motors. we might still buy them, but we are more selective. HD might win us over - they just need to find a way to convince either we are wrong to be concerned with air cooled bikes or more likely satisfy our issues with the motors. But we might still buy an HD. At least we ride.

The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet?

HD is dependent on bikes. Honda, and the other producers have a diversified product line and can reallocate resources. I think HD will be toast soon as a result. They won't go away, but I can surely see a time when polaris (or some other manufacturer) purchases them at a steep discount and makes them another brand in their stable. Short of something like this I just do not see HD surviving as a stand alone company unless they can convince people to buy their bikes.

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post #87 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 07:36 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Mowoc View Post

The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet?

HD is dependent on bikes.
What Harley should be doing as a company is to slowly start downsizing as the number of bike sales start to decline over time. That's there best chance to get the longest life out of the company. Remember the bigger you are the harder you fall.
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post #88 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 08:44 PM
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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mowoc View Post
PARTICIPATION TROPHY!!!!!!!!

It doesn't matter if they tried. Either they succeed or they fail. No one cares that sears or kmart tried. they failed. That is what we remember. HD had killer margins for a manufacturer. They sold their product as a premium niche product that should garner attention (think iphone). This worked fantastic for the boomers. It still does to the extent the boomers ride.

Then generation x (my generation) came along. We still ride, but we are skeptical of the 70 year old technology HD uses for their motors. we might still buy them, but we are more selective. HD might win us over - they just need to find a way to convince either we are wrong to be concerned with air cooled bikes or more likely satisfy our issues with the motors. But we might still buy an HD. At least we ride.

The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet?

HD is dependent on bikes. Honda, and the other producers have a diversified product line and can reallocate resources. I think HD will be toast soon as a result. They won't go away, but I can surely see a time when polaris (or some other manufacturer) purchases them at a steep discount and makes them another brand in their stable. Short of something like this I just do not see HD surviving as a stand alone company unless they can convince people to buy their bikes.

Nobody is expecting them to want or receive a participation trophy. That's not the point at all. What matters is that they are not sitting on their hands, rather they are trying new things. The M8 motor is not 70 year old technology, any more than the V6 or V8 in your Chevy is. The M8 was developed from the ground up, is a four valve per cylinder pushrod engine, with a whole lot of time and money used to get as much out of it as can be. Do you think that it is older tech than the VTX 1800 or 1300? If you do, you haven't done your homework.

I don't know what you think they should do but at least they are not wringing their hands and calling the WH asking for a govt. bailout. They're trying. Survive or not, we don't know yet, but if you read their history you'll learn that they have faced worse periods of interest decline in their long, storied history. And come through them.

They don't do everything right, and they're still doing some things wrong, in my opinion which I've already stated in previous posts. But you can't (or shouldn't), fault them for trying. At least they haven't pulled the plug on all of their manufacturing here as some other companies have done.
You're coming across somewhat like Chicken Little, and also you appear to be reveling in their struggles. If the latter is true I wouldn't really expect you to be optimistic, or even objective about their situation. And you're not.


Oh, and btw, I don't believe any of their large displacement bikes are solely air cooled any longer. The Softails are oil cooled (heads), and the touring bikes are both oil and liquid cooled. And it's not just cooling of the oil itself that's taking place, the oil and the liquids are being circulated to pull heat out of the motor as well as to cool the oil.
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post #89 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 10:33 PM
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I live in an area where motorcycles are big business, I see large groups of Harley riders all the time most with newer Harleys and all the gear etc heading out on road trips etc, there are still a lot of love for Harleys where I ride. They are not all old men either, groups of 15-20 men and women riders who are in their 40's and younger loving the "sport". So Harley will be around for the rest of our lifetimes and well beyond, rest assured.

Someone should get a hold of Harley's Stock prospectus and see what their plans and projections are rather than playing "pin the tail on the donkey" trying to guess.

I'm not one of them but there are plenty of people who can afford to purchase a new (big) Harley in the USA.

The electric Harley is aimed at the millennials imo and that strategy isn't over yet, no electric vehicle is low priced right now, look at Tesla. Our current political environment isn't interested in "Green" Energy" right now, which isnt helping, but that will change in time. Incentives for companies to produce electric vehicles and for people to buy them will return within the next 2-5 years and only increase i believe.

Costs for American Manufacturers, like Harley, for things like their cost for employee health benefits will change imo at some point in the not so distant future as we move to a universal healthcare system, like all the other motorcycle producing countries have.

So what happens to Harley will mirror what happens to the USA in terms of future vitality in many ways.
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post #90 of 103 (permalink) Old 10-23-2019, 11:01 PM
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Nobody is expecting them to want or receive a participation trophy. That's not the point at all. What matters is that they are not sitting on their hands, rather they are trying new things. The M8 motor is not 70 year old technology, any more than the V6 or V8 in your Chevy is. The M8 was developed from the ground up, is a four valve per cylinder pushrod engine, with a whole lot of time and money used to get as much out of it as can be. Do you think that it is older tech than the VTX 1800 or 1300? If you do, you haven't done your homework.

I don't know what you think they should do but at least they are not wringing their hands and calling the WH asking for a govt. bailout. They're trying. Survive or not, we don't know yet, but if you read their history you'll learn that they have faced worse periods of interest decline in their long, storied history. And come through them.

They don't do everything right, and they're still doing some things wrong, in my opinion which I've already stated in previous posts. But you can't (or shouldn't), fault them for trying. At least they haven't pulled the plug on all of their manufacturing here as some other companies have done.
You're coming across somewhat like Chicken Little, and also you appear to be reveling in their struggles. If the latter is true I wouldn't really expect you to be optimistic, or even objective about their situation. And you're not.


Oh, and btw, I don't believe any of their large displacement bikes are solely air cooled any longer. The Softails are oil cooled (heads), and the touring bikes are both oil and liquid cooled. And it's not just cooling of the oil itself that's taking place, the oil and the liquids are being circulated to pull heat out of the motor as well as to cool the oil.
Come on, admit it - the participation trophy crack was funny.

Back to the discussion - motorcycle sales are declining rapidly. No one wants them. I am sure there will be a small core market for HD, but it wonít be what the 90s brought them.

Either they get it together and put out a product millennials want or they are in for seriously difficult times.

I wish them luck. I showed why the bikes are overpriced relative to the competition - thatís why I wonít buy them. Well that and push rods are 70 year old technology. Overhead valves have existed long enough tht they are pretty solid.

Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light - Dylan Thomas
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke
If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them. - Dalai Lama
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