The Diamond Princess, a floating Chinese Virus palace, provides suggestive data Willis Eisenbach took a closer look at the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship on which people were quarantined and discovered counterintuitive facts. More
What I found interesting is that teens are vulnerable, not every elderly person caught it,This completely supports the logic that I presented earlier. Very interesting that half the cases on the ship were asymptotic. That puts the mortality rate at 1% at max. And that is very conservative.
I think that may have something to do with teens general mentality. Teens, for the most part, would be less likely to take precautions than a more mature, elderly.What I found interesting is that teens are vulnerable, not every elderly person caught it,
I don't disagree with you, but all the articles / opinions I've read stressed the danger to older people.I think that may have something to do with teens general mentality. Teens, for the most part, would be less likely to take precautions than a more mature, elderly.
Right, that is what they are saying, but I think that assumes all else being equal. Why many were asymptomatic and others were not, I'm sure is not fully understood. I believe, at least this is how I understand it, the risk to elderly and those with underlying conditions is that of mortality of the development of life threatening pneumonia. I would think the average teen, although symptomatic in response to infection, would have a better chance of surviving that. That said, yes, those numbers, taken at face value, do surprise.I don't disagree with you, but all the articles / opinions I've read stressed the danger to older people.
Pretty much the entire world is shutting down social interactions and commerce in order to prevent what they fear could turn into many, many millions of deaths. Since epidemiologists and infectious disease experts are fairly unanimous on this global course of action, I am framing the issue in four most probable ways:
1. The experts have got it about right, and the world is taking mostly appropriate steps.
2. The experts are well-intended but they have got it wrong and are overreacting. World leaders (including Trump) have been duped into following bad advice.
3. The experts are not well-intended, and in fact they are part of a conspiracy to wreck the world’s economy. Global leaders are being duped.
4. Epidemiologists and political leaders are jointly involved in a conspiracy to destroy the global economy. Very few leaders are being duped because they are essentially all in on it.
Personally, I think we all trying to deal with a somewhat unknown threat the best we can. I believe Option 1 makes the most sense.
If the steps being taken save lives, why would anyone say oops? Unless those people feel that lives lost are worth the price to continue on as before with a less than slow spread and an ever-widening contagion and increasing body count?
Agreed.If this turns into a situation in which the govt. tries to take advantage or increase their power outside of the purposes so far shown we can deal with it at that time. In the meantime I see it as a way to slow the spread, save lives, and work out a solution. Time will tell whether it's effective on a broad scale but if it saves lives, my own very possibly included, then I'll see it as worthwhile. If it's abused then that's a different story. And outcome.