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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
 

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Weird considering you haven quoted a single fact to support the case HD isn’t overpriced.

The fact is that HD is over priced. The opinion is if it is worth it. ;)
Never mind brother. It's unlikely you'll take my point as you fail to see your "facts" are assumption and preference. It's all good, your feelings regarding this are clear. I only wanted to point out that gross profit and what ends up keeping the lights on are vastly different. It is far ... far more involved than just looking at a couple of numbers and drawing a conclusion.


I don't support a case that HDs are NOT overpriced, only that your case that they are is based on loose assumptions. That doesn't mean you are wrong, only that you can't back up your opinion with facts, because you haven't seen both sets of books. Again, it doesn't mean your opinion is incorrect. If it's not worth it to the person spending the cash, then one should buy something else. It would be foolish otherwise.
 

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Discussion Starter #83
That’s the beauty of the free market.

You like it? Buy it.

The issue for HD is that their market is shrinking. Boomers are dying off. And gen x is not interested in HD like the boomers. The millennials are not attracted at all.
The thing with buying a high price bike. There comes a time in the future you will have to sell due to age, health or other. Motorcycles are in a decline. Trends and styles come and go. We live in a throw away society. You'll take a bike loss on selling that high price bike you once paid for. Keeping my Honda, enjoyed many good times, not buying a Harley pushing back.
 

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The thing with buying a high price bike. There comes a time in the future you will have to sell due to age, health or other. Motorcycles are in a decline. Trends and styles come and go. We live in a throw away society. You'll take a bike loss on selling that high price bike you once paid for. Keeping my Honda, enjoyed many good times, not buying a Harley pushing back.
I took what you said and removed what i felt was BS or unnecessary "filler" verbiage.

Amounts to this:

"Motorcycles are in a decline. You'll take a bike [big] loss on selling that bike [Harley you bought new]. Keeping my Honda not buying a Harley [because the cost]."

Nothing new there that we didn't already know yet keep hearing repeated. Yawn....
 

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Discussion Starter #85
I took what you said and removed what i felt was BS or unnecessary "filler" verbiage.

Amounts to this:

"Motorcycles are in a decline. You'll take a bike [big] loss on selling that bike [Harley you bought new]. Keeping my Honda not buying a Harley [because the cost]."

Nothing new there that we didn't already know yet keep hearing repeated. Yawn....
Correct I meant big loss. I know I'm repeating. I always think about long term effects when making big purchases instead of being caught in the moment. I see it all the time people buy things, change their minds turn around sell it at a loss.
 

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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
PARTICIPATION TROPHY!!!!!!!!:firstplace::firstplace::firstplace::firstplace::joke:

It doesn't matter if they tried. Either they succeed or they fail. No one cares that sears or kmart tried. they failed. That is what we remember. HD had killer margins for a manufacturer. They sold their product as a premium niche product that should garner attention (think iphone). This worked fantastic for the boomers. It still does to the extent the boomers ride.

Then generation x (my generation) came along. We still ride, but we are skeptical of the 70 year old technology HD uses for their motors. we might still buy them, but we are more selective. HD might win us over - they just need to find a way to convince either we are wrong to be concerned with air cooled bikes or more likely satisfy our issues with the motors. But we might still buy an HD. At least we ride.

The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet? :dontknow:

HD is dependent on bikes. Honda, and the other producers have a diversified product line and can reallocate resources. I think HD will be toast soon as a result. They won't go away, but I can surely see a time when polaris (or some other manufacturer) purchases them at a steep discount and makes them another brand in their stable. Short of something like this I just do not see HD surviving as a stand alone company unless they can convince people to buy their bikes.
 

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Discussion Starter #87
The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet? :dontknow:

HD is dependent on bikes.
What Harley should be doing as a company is to slowly start downsizing as the number of bike sales start to decline over time. That's there best chance to get the longest life out of the company. Remember the bigger you are the harder you fall.
 

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What should they do?

Time will tell. But in the meantime they're trying many things that none of their competitors are even considering, yet. Some of it may work, some may not. But like I said, if they fail it won't be for a lack of trying. There's something to be said for that.
PARTICIPATION TROPHY!!!!!!!!:firstplace::firstplace::firstplace::firstplace::joke:

It doesn't matter if they tried. Either they succeed or they fail. No one cares that sears or kmart tried. they failed. That is what we remember. HD had killer margins for a manufacturer. They sold their product as a premium niche product that should garner attention (think iphone). This worked fantastic for the boomers. It still does to the extent the boomers ride.

Then generation x (my generation) came along. We still ride, but we are skeptical of the 70 year old technology HD uses for their motors. we might still buy them, but we are more selective. HD might win us over - they just need to find a way to convince either we are wrong to be concerned with air cooled bikes or more likely satisfy our issues with the motors. But we might still buy an HD. At least we ride.

The millennials abhor motorcycles. They will not purchase them - they see no use for them. HD can't address that - not unless they can find a way to get them to want to ride. That is a whole different problem. Convincing a group of people that the product is worth it is one thing, but convincing a group of people they should even consider any product in the group is a completely different animal. I just cannot see a millennial riding for any extended period of time - how would they update facebook and tweet? :dontknow:

HD is dependent on bikes. Honda, and the other producers have a diversified product line and can reallocate resources. I think HD will be toast soon as a result. They won't go away, but I can surely see a time when polaris (or some other manufacturer) purchases them at a steep discount and makes them another brand in their stable. Short of something like this I just do not see HD surviving as a stand alone company unless they can convince people to buy their bikes.

Nobody is expecting them to want or receive a participation trophy. That's not the point at all. What matters is that they are not sitting on their hands, rather they are trying new things. The M8 motor is not 70 year old technology, any more than the V6 or V8 in your Chevy is. The M8 was developed from the ground up, is a four valve per cylinder pushrod engine, with a whole lot of time and money used to get as much out of it as can be. Do you think that it is older tech than the VTX 1800 or 1300? If you do, you haven't done your homework.

I don't know what you think they should do but at least they are not wringing their hands and calling the WH asking for a govt. bailout. They're trying. Survive or not, we don't know yet, but if you read their history you'll learn that they have faced worse periods of interest decline in their long, storied history. And come through them.

They don't do everything right, and they're still doing some things wrong, in my opinion which I've already stated in previous posts. But you can't (or shouldn't), fault them for trying. At least they haven't pulled the plug on all of their manufacturing here as some other companies have done.
You're coming across somewhat like Chicken Little, and also you appear to be reveling in their struggles. If the latter is true I wouldn't really expect you to be optimistic, or even objective about their situation. And you're not.


Oh, and btw, I don't believe any of their large displacement bikes are solely air cooled any longer. The Softails are oil cooled (heads), and the touring bikes are both oil and liquid cooled. And it's not just cooling of the oil itself that's taking place, the oil and the liquids are being circulated to pull heat out of the motor as well as to cool the oil.
 

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I live in an area where motorcycles are big business, I see large groups of Harley riders all the time most with newer Harleys and all the gear etc heading out on road trips etc, there are still a lot of love for Harleys where I ride. They are not all old men either, groups of 15-20 men and women riders who are in their 40's and younger loving the "sport". So Harley will be around for the rest of our lifetimes and well beyond, rest assured.

Someone should get a hold of Harley's Stock prospectus and see what their plans and projections are rather than playing "pin the tail on the donkey" trying to guess.

I'm not one of them but there are plenty of people who can afford to purchase a new (big) Harley in the USA.

The electric Harley is aimed at the millennials imo and that strategy isn't over yet, no electric vehicle is low priced right now, look at Tesla. Our current political environment isn't interested in "Green" Energy" right now, which isnt helping, but that will change in time. Incentives for companies to produce electric vehicles and for people to buy them will return within the next 2-5 years and only increase i believe.

Costs for American Manufacturers, like Harley, for things like their cost for employee health benefits will change imo at some point in the not so distant future as we move to a universal healthcare system, like all the other motorcycle producing countries have.

So what happens to Harley will mirror what happens to the USA in terms of future vitality in many ways.
 

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Nobody is expecting them to want or receive a participation trophy. That's not the point at all. What matters is that they are not sitting on their hands, rather they are trying new things. The M8 motor is not 70 year old technology, any more than the V6 or V8 in your Chevy is. The M8 was developed from the ground up, is a four valve per cylinder pushrod engine, with a whole lot of time and money used to get as much out of it as can be. Do you think that it is older tech than the VTX 1800 or 1300? If you do, you haven't done your homework.

I don't know what you think they should do but at least they are not wringing their hands and calling the WH asking for a govt. bailout. They're trying. Survive or not, we don't know yet, but if you read their history you'll learn that they have faced worse periods of interest decline in their long, storied history. And come through them.

They don't do everything right, and they're still doing some things wrong, in my opinion which I've already stated in previous posts. But you can't (or shouldn't), fault them for trying. At least they haven't pulled the plug on all of their manufacturing here as some other companies have done.
You're coming across somewhat like Chicken Little, and also you appear to be reveling in their struggles. If the latter is true I wouldn't really expect you to be optimistic, or even objective about their situation. And you're not.


Oh, and btw, I don't believe any of their large displacement bikes are solely air cooled any longer. The Softails are oil cooled (heads), and the touring bikes are both oil and liquid cooled. And it's not just cooling of the oil itself that's taking place, the oil and the liquids are being circulated to pull heat out of the motor as well as to cool the oil.
Come on, admit it - the participation trophy crack was funny. :D

Back to the discussion - motorcycle sales are declining rapidly. No one wants them. I am sure there will be a small core market for HD, but it won’t be what the 90s brought them.

Either they get it together and put out a product millennials want or they are in for seriously difficult times.

I wish them luck. I showed why the bikes are overpriced relative to the competition - that’s why I won’t buy them. Well that and push rods are 70 year old technology. Overhead valves have existed long enough tht they are pretty solid.
 

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Come on, admit it - the participation trophy crack was funny. :D

Back to the discussion - motorcycle sales are declining rapidly. No one wants them. I am sure there will be a small core market for HD, but it won’t be what the 90s brought them.

Either they get it together and put out a product millennials want or they are in for seriously difficult times.

I wish them luck. I showed why the bikes are overpriced relative to the competition - that’s why I won’t buy them. Well that and push rods are 70 year old technology. Overhead valves have existed long enough tht they are pretty solid.
do you have data, articles or inside information that could be of use. Millennial data too? I'm believing what you are saying but still want to know if you have actual data to back it up. I don't want to assume the worst outcome for motorcycles if i dont have to or shouldn't be. Maybe i missed it when the data was presented.
 

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the decline in units is well documented. It actually started about 10 years ago.

The thing is that the decline is not dramatic. It follows the aging of two populations - the boomers and Gen X. As those two populations age and die. it will start to accelerate. Take a look around - there are plenty of sites that discuss this issue.

https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcycle-industry-statistics-trends-analysis/

Point #8 in this article pretty much sums it up:

In 2007, consumers purchased 1 million motorcycles in the United States. In 2017, consumers bought about 472,000 motorcycles. (Statista)

units fell by half in 10 years. That is not a good sign......
 

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the decline in units is well documented. It actually started about 10 years ago.

The thing is that the decline is not dramatic. It follows the aging of two populations - the boomers and Gen X. As those two populations age and die. it will start to accelerate. Take a look around - there are plenty of sites that discuss this issue.

https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcycle-industry-statistics-trends-analysis/

Point #8 in this article pretty much sums it up:

In 2007, consumers purchased 1 million motorcycles in the United States. In 2017, consumers bought about 472,000 motorcycles. (Statista)

units fell by half in 10 years. That is not a good sign......

Bottom line, i think you are being an alarmist with regards to Harley, screaming "the sky is falling"
here.

First, the 2007 units purchased you reference does not separate Harley from all other brands making it misleading in a Harley-Davidson discussion. I tried (for awhile) to find Harley Davidson's USA Sales by unit per year 2007-2018 but could not find it. What i did find were these two pieces of data.

1. Harley-Davidson's sales revenue per year worldwide by year 2005-2018
Harley-Davidson Annual Revenue
(Millions of US $)
2018 $5,717
2017 $5,647
2016 $5,996
2015 $5,995
2014 $6,229
2013 $5,900
2012 $5,581
2011 $5,312
2010 $4,859
2009 $4,782
2008 $5,955
2007 $6,143
2006 $6,186
2005 $5,674
The above doesn't look so bad actually.
Source of data:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HOG/harley-davidson/revenue

2. These "facts" i found by following the link you provided above. This link:
https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcycle-industry-statistics-trends-analysis/

#3. 1.9 million motorcycles are expected to be sold across North America in 2018. Harley Davidson is the global leader in the industry, with $5.6 billion in total revenues earned each year. (Statista)
This seems to contradict the statistica statement you provided regarding 2017 units sold.

#10. Harley Davidson has a 60% share of the female market within the motorcycle industry thanks to the introduction of its Street 500 and Street 750 models. (The Motley Fool)
What is the Harleys Market percentage share of the Male market within the motorcycle industry? That data was mysteriously missing.


Harley Sales are still down but not nearly as bad a you were trying to illustrate. 2018 blends in with the fluctuations that occurred over the range of years.


To all those with the Dooms Day scenario for Harley I say Lighten up Francis. :grin2:
 

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Bottom line, i think you are being an alarmist with regards to Harley, screaming "the sky is falling"
here.

First, the 2007 units purchased you reference does not separate Harley from all other brands making it misleading in a Harley-Davidson discussion. I tried (for awhile) to find Harley Davidson's USA Sales by unit per year 2007-2018 but could not find it. What i did find were these two pieces of data.

1. Harley-Davidson's sales revenue per year worldwide by year 2005-2018
Harley-Davidson Annual Revenue
(Millions of US $)
2018 $5,717
2017 $5,647
2016 $5,996
2015 $5,995
2014 $6,229
2013 $5,900
2012 $5,581
2011 $5,312
2010 $4,859
2009 $4,782
2008 $5,955
2007 $6,143
2006 $6,186
2005 $5,674
The above doesn't look so bad actually.
Source of data:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HOG/harley-davidson/revenue

2. These "facts" i found by following the link you provided above. This link:
https://brandongaille.com/34-motorcycle-industry-statistics-trends-analysis/

#3. 1.9 million motorcycles are expected to be sold across North America in 2018. Harley Davidson is the global leader in the industry, with $5.6 billion in total revenues earned each year. (Statista)
This seems to contradict the statistica statement you provided regarding 2017 units sold.

#10. Harley Davidson has a 60% share of the female market within the motorcycle industry thanks to the introduction of its Street 500 and Street 750 models. (The Motley Fool)
What is the Harleys Market percentage share of the Male market within the motorcycle industry? That data was mysteriously missing.


Harley Sales are still down but not nearly as bad a you were trying to illustrate. 2018 blends in with the fluctuations that occurred over the range of years.


To all those with the Dooms Day scenario for Harley I say Lighten up Francis. :grin2:
HD revenue doesn't mean its healthy. This is from the latest earnings release:

https://www.rideapart.com/articles/377897/harley-2019-q3-earnings-report/

As of right now, the company is targeting shipments of between 212,000 and 217,000 bikes worldwide for 2019. That is about 55% of the unit number I posted earlier.


it is not just alarmists saying that HD is in for a rough time. The stock price for HD is down 38.55% over the last 5 years. At the same time the markets are up around 50% over the same time frame. HD has issues - and they are not tiny ones. Everyone knows it and the fix is easy and well known - get millennials to buy their bikes. TBH, I don't see a millennial tattooing HD or any other brand on themselves besides maybe apple. That generation simply doesn't see things like other generations.

HD won't make it if they can't extend their market to the younger generation, and that is the cold truth here. I am not saying they won't - clearly they are geniuses at marketing if they can get people to buy their technology at a rate that is approximately double the profit that anyone else makes.

I wish HD luck - I don't want them to disappear, but with a 50% loss in sold units over 10 years and younger demographic that doesn't find the brand appealing I don't see much hope for them long term.
 

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Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

Would still like to see worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. Just revenue by year.

How can revenue be off 8% in 2017 compared to 2007 then you're providing data saying 50% drop in sales units in 2017 compared to 2007.

So the units went down by 50% and the revenue down by just 8%? I'm not a numbers guy, but something is wrong there. Maybe Harley sold a hell of a lot of leather jackets and oil changes, or became extremely efficient.

I would like to see Harley worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. can you find the data?

Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

i purposely repeated what i consider important points i have.

Here's Harley's investor relations page:
https://investor.harley-davidson.com/our-company/motorcycle-retail-sales
 

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Discussion Starter #96
it is not just alarmists saying that HD is in for a rough time. The stock price for HD is down 38.55% over the last 5 years. At the same time the markets are up around 50% over the same time frame. HD has issues - and they are not tiny ones. Everyone knows it and the fix is easy and well known - get millennials to buy their bikes. TBH, I don't see a millennial tattooing HD or any other brand on themselves besides maybe apple. That generation simply doesn't see things like other generations.

HD won't make it if they can't extend their market to the younger generation, and that is the cold truth here. I am not saying they won't - clearly they are geniuses at marketing if they can get people to buy their technology at a rate that is approximately double the profit that anyone else makes.

I wish HD luck - I don't want them to disappear, but with a 50% loss in sold units over 10 years and younger demographic that doesn't find the brand appealing I don't see much hope for them long term.
Well said and some great data in previous posts. Millennials-a whole new breed that could take down most of the motorcycle industry in future. years.
 

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Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

Would still like to see worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. Just revenue by year.

How can revenue be off 8% in 2017 compared to 2007 then you're providing data saying 50% drop in sales units in 2017 compared to 2007.

So the units went down by 50% and the revenue down by just 8%? I'm not a numbers guy, but something is wrong there. Maybe Harley sold a hell of a lot of leather jackets and oil changes, or became extremely efficient.

I would like to see Harley worldwide unit sales by year from 2007, which i cannot find. can you find the data?

Harley has their work cut out for them, there's no doubt. Trends don't look good, especially when you compare to 2007.

i purposely repeated what i consider important points i have.

Here's Harley's investor relations page:
https://investor.harley-davidson.com/our-company/motorcycle-retail-sales
they increased their marketing sales of paraphernalia. Tshirts and leather coats have a higher gross margin then bikes. :grin2:


PS - worldwide sales of bikes are healthy. but most people in the developing world want smaller displacement bikes. 125 to 250 is all they want. those bikes tend to sell for < $1000.

I agree it would be great if HD could pierce that market - but they are marketing themselves as a premium brand. I just don't see this as viable for them unless they develop a separate brand for developing nations.

PPS - this is where honda is focusing. They could not care less about us american v twin riding types.
 
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Honda has the Fury 1300 in the 2020 lineup, very strange. The chopper scene died a long time ago.
Not available in Canada even. In Canada they have 2 cruisers, The Rebel 500 and the Rebel 300. They are entirely out of the cruiser market in Canada. Other than the Goldwing they have nothing at all that even remotely competes with anything Harley, or Indian for that matter. The variations of different bike types are all just different engines that look the same. Nothing too exciting, at least for me. Around here, Honda's sales of anything but sport bikes and dirt bikes / ATVs were dismal. That may only be for around this area, but it seems they will need to do something to spruce up the offerings to get people back into showrooms. I am told the new Goldwing did fairly well for them this past season though, even with it's teething problems.


My bet is that Honda will rely on international sales and wait out the market in North America. This is definitely a luxury they can enjoy for the interim. I don't think Harley has that luxury, but is something they are definitely working on. Their focus is definitely international sales. Asia and India, mainly.
 
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